Swiggy may rebound to Rs 190, but charts do not signal a trend reversal
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LKP Securities’ Vatsal Bhuva sees continued downside risks for Nifty and Bank Nifty, while identifying potential rebounds in Swiggy and HDFC Bank. He also recommends Oriental Hotels and Apollo Hospitals, citing improving technical indicators and favourable chart setups.
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Loading...×Swiggy’s post-results selloff has deepened its technical damage, with the stock continuing to form lower highs and lower lows since its listing. While deeply oversold conditions could trigger a rebound towards Rs 190, the chart setup does not yet signal a trend reversal, according to Vatsal Bhuva, technical analyst at LKP Securities.Edited excerpts from a chat:
Nifty closed at 22,600 levels after touching 22,372. Is the 22,200–22,000 zone still a credible support base, or has the market entered a fresh leg of the downtrend?
Yes, 22,200–22,000 is strong support for the Nifty index. But indicators have already signalled the continuation of the downtrend, and breaking of these levels is very crucial for confirmation.
Nifty’s recent pullback faced resistance near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, measured from the August high to the October low. The index continues to form a lower-high pattern, indicating that the recent recovery was a corrective pullback within the broader downtrend rather than a trend reversal. The formation of a hidden bearish divergence on the RSI also points towards the possibility of renewed selling pressure.
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However, a decisive break below 22,200 would confirm further weakness in price action. The 22,200–22,350 zone remains crucial, as the index is testing an important long-term support area around its monthly 50-SMA. A sustained breakdown below 22,200 could drag Nifty towards 21,700 and 21,500. And now the 20 DMA on the daily chart will act as dynamic resistance for the Nifty index, currently placed at the 22,800 zone.
On the upside, reclaiming the 50-DMA on the daily chart and sustaining above the 23,500 level would negate the prevailing bearish bias and signal a potential improvement in the near-term technical structure.
Bank Nifty has underperformed Nifty. Is the weakness in private banks, particularly HDFC Bank, now becoming a broader sector risk, or do the charts suggest accumulation near current levels?
Bank Nifty remains vulnerable, with 53,800 acting as a crucial swing-low support, while the charts show no confirmed accumulation.
Bank Nifty’s underperformance against Nifty signals growing weakness, with HDFC Bank remaining a key concern. A decisive breakdown below Rs 680 in HDFC Bank, coupled with continued consolidation in SBI, ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank, could amplify selling pressure in Bank Nifty and Nifty.
If weakness persists, Bank Nifty’s crucial swing-low support at 53,800 could also be breached, triggering further downside. At current levels, the charts do not indicate confirmed accumulation, warranting a cautious approach until buying interest strengthens across heavyweight banking stocks.
HDFC Bank is nearly 31% below its 52-week high and has faced fresh news-flow pressure. What price level would invalidate the long-term bullish structure, and where could a technical bottom emerge?
A sustained breakdown below Rs 680 would invalidate HDFC Bank’s long-term bullish structure, potentially opening the downside towards Rs 620–Rs 600, where a technical bottom could emerge subject to price stabilisation and renewed buying interest.
HDFC Bank’s long-term technical structure has weakened considerably. The stock has broken its rising trendline support around Rs 750 and subsequently breached its monthly 100-SMA, indicating a significant deterioration in its long-term price structure.
The Rs 680 level is now a crucial support; a decisive monthly or sustained price breakdown below this zone could expose the stock to the Rs 620–Rs 600 range, which coincides with an important historical swing-low support area and could emerge as a potential bottoming zone. HDFC Bank is expected to face immediate resistance at Rs 710.
A bullish stance should be considered only after the stock delivers a decisive close above Rs 760, confirming a potential improvement in its technical structure.
IT stocks are rebounding even as US technology shares and Asian tech markets weaken. Is the Nifty IT rally a genuine sector rotation or merely a relief rally after prolonged underperformance?
The Nifty IT rally currently appears to be a potential sector rotation rather than merely a relief rally, but a sustained breakout above 32,000 is essential to confirm the trend.
The recent strength in Indian IT stocks appears partly driven by relative rotation, as investors reassess their exposure to AI-linked semiconductor and technology companies in overseas markets. Indian IT companies, with relatively lower direct exposure to semiconductor manufacturing, may attract selective buying during such periods. Technically, Nifty IT has reclaimed its 200-DMA and is showing signs of base formation on the daily and weekly charts.
However, the rally will gain credibility only if the index sustains above the crucial supply zone of 32,000. A decisive and sustained breakout could open the way towards 36,000. Among large-cap stocks, TCS, Infosys, Tech Mahindra and Mphasis warrant attention, while KPIT Technologies and Birlasoft are worth tracking in the mid-cap space. The breakout needs confirmation before the move can be considered a durable sector rotation.
Swiggy fell sharply after its quarterly results. Is the chart showing a breakdown in investor risk appetite, and is there any technical support zone worth watching in Swiggy?
Swiggy’s persistent lower-high and lower-low structure signals sustained selling pressure, while the 61.8% Fibonacci extension offers a potential support zone, and deeply oversold conditions leave room for a counter-trend rebound towards Rs 190, without confirming a trend reversal.
Swiggy’s weekly chart reflects a persistent downtrend, characterised by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows since listing. Friday’s sharp decline also indicated strong selling pressure, potentially reflecting heightened risk aversion following the results. The stock is trading in largely uncharted price territory, making conventional historical support levels less reliable.
However, the 61.8% Fibonacci extension, measured using the September 2025 high and July low, could act as a potential support reference. The stock is also deeply oversold across the daily, weekly and monthly charts, creating the possibility of a technical rebound towards Rs 190. Such a recovery should be viewed as a counter-trend bounce rather than a confirmed reversal, unless the stock establishes a stronger price structure.
Give us your top ideas for the week ahead.
Two sectors are looking good first is Hotel sector and other is Defensive sector that is Health care sector.
1. Buy Oriental Hotels at Rs 148–151 | Stop-loss: Rs 141 | Target: Rs 166
The stock is showing strength despite the ongoing corrective phase, with a rounding base formation visible on the daily chart. It is sustaining above its consolidation breakout zone and its 20-DMA and 50-DMA on the daily chart, indicating a positive short-term structure. The weekly chart also supports the improving technical outlook. Considering the overall setup on the daily and weekly charts, the stock can be considered for buying in the Rs 148–153 range, with a strict stop-loss at Rs 141 and a near-term upside target of Rs 166, provided the bullish structure remains intact.
2. Buy Apollo Hospitals at Rs 7,700 | Stop-loss: Rs 7,490 | Target: Rs 8,150
The stock is showing signs of a potential mean-reversion move following a sharp news-driven decline, which has pushed the price towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, measured from the 2 April 2026 low of Rs 7,168 to the 25 September high of Rs 9,069. Positive divergence on both daily and hourly charts indicates improving momentum and the possibility of a technical rebound. Given the favourable risk-reward setup, a long position can be considered in this low-beta, defensive stock, subject to appropriate risk management and price confirmation.
(Disclaimer: This article has been written by Nikhil Agarwal, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Nikhil Agarwal and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimershere)
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Figures reflect the source report and its stated period. This article is for information and is not investment advice.
